Investor’s Roundup (Volatility in Focus) – Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE: ANF)

Shares were mostly higher in Asia on Tuesday following an upbeat finish on Wall Street. Chinese benchmarks surged after Beijing reported that exports rebounded in April, jumping nearly 22 percent from a year earlier. Oil prices fell back from a three-year high.

KEEPING SCORE: Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index added 0.2 percent to 22,508.69 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.4 percent to 30,403.82. The Shanghai Composite index jumped 0.7 percent to 3,159.83. South Korea’s Kospi gave up early gains to lost 0.6 percent, ending at 2,445.86, while Australia’s S&P ASX 200 edged less than 0.1 percent higher to 6,087.30. Shares were higher in Singapore and Taiwan but fell 2.1 percent in Indonesia, where the government reported economic growth slowed in January-March.

CHINA TRADE: China’s exports expanded by 21.5 percent from a year earlier in April, bouncing back from a contraction the previous month. Imports expanded 12.9 percent year-on-year in dollar terms, leaving the country’s politically sensitive monthly trade surplus with the rest of the world at $28.8 billion, a turnaround from the previous month’s $5 billion deficit.

THE QUOTE: “The widening China-US trade surplus reflects the difficulty of significantly closing the trade gap between the two countries in the near term, but it is unlikely to obstruct the constructive progress made recently,” Betty Wang of ANZ said in a commentary.

WALL STREET: U.S. stocks closed modestly higher Monday, extending gains from last week, with advances for technology companies and banks outweighing losses for consumer goods companies. The S&P 500 index rose 0.35 percent to 2,672.63, while the Dow Jones industrial average gained 0.39 percent to 24,357.32. The Nasdaq added 0.77 percent to 7,265.21. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks picked up 0.85 percent to 1,578.95.

ENERGY: Oil prices fell back after a rally that had them closing above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014. On Monday, oil futures climbed to their highest level since November 2014 as a May 12 deadline approached for the U.S. to decide whether to remain in the nuclear agreement with Iran. Tuesday in Asia, benchmark U.S. crude oil dropped 59 cents to $70.14 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, which is used to price international oils, lost 51 cents per barrel to $75.66 per barrel. (Source: Fox Business)

Hot Stock Analysis: Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE: ANF)

Investors rushed to trade on Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE: ANF) Monday, soon after a drastic change of -0.67% in the share price was observed and the stock become able to close its trade at $25.23. The stock becomes active when traders or investors changed hands with 2,778,024 shares contrast to the three-month volume average of 3.03M shares. The ratio between current volume and 3-month average value, also known as Relative volume was observed at 0.91, validating the stock’s In Play state.

Stock Technical’s & Performances to Explore:

Based on a recent bid, this stock (ANF) was trading at a distance of -13.58% from 52-week high and 186.38% away from its 52-week low price. We observed -1.52% rate of return for a stock for the last 5-trading days, which was maintained for the month at -7.75%. Likewise, the performance for the quarter was recorded as 27.23% and for the year was 101.52%. The comparison of these above mentioned historical values gives an idea to investor whether the stock is ready to shift trend (up to down or down to up) or how the stock has recovered the losses or shed gains during its historical phase. For example, if stock’s weekly and monthly performances are positive as compared to year and YTD performance percentage also seems to decrease in comparison to the previous year performance, then one can say that the stock is bouncing back and may able to gain more and more in near future and vice versa. Although stock’s historical performances are key to consider, don’t invest (or not invest) based solely on it. It’s just one measure of value. As a serious shareholder, you need to look at plentiful factors that can assist you determine whether any given stock is a good investment.

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in Focus:

Moving averages is one of the key indicator and the most powerful tool used by traders. A simple moving average is easy to calculate, which allows it to be employed fairly quickly and easily. A textbook definition of a moving average is an average price for a security using a specified time period. The simplest form of a moving average, appropriately known as a simple moving average (SMA), is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values. For example, to calculate a basic 10-day moving average you would add up the closing prices from the past 10 days and then divide the result by 10. If a trader wishes to see a 50-day average instead, the same type of calculation would be made, but it would include the prices over the past 50 days and the same process goes on for 200 days.

Do SMAs Signal a Trend Reversal?

Based on a recent bid, this stock (ANF) was trading at a distance of -6.62% from 20 days simple moving average, and its distance from 50 days simple moving average is 2.87% while it has a distance of 43.72% from the 200 days simple moving average. A moving average’s greatest strength is its ability to assist a trader identifies a current trend or spots a possible trend reversal. Moving averages can also identify a level of support or resistance for the security, or act as a simple entry or exit signal.

Stock’s Volatility Analysis:

Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. It generally deals with the amount of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a security’s value. It can either be calculated by means of the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. The Rule of thumb is higher the volatility, the riskier the security. A higher volatility means that a security’s value can potentially be spread out over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction. A lower volatility means that a security’s value does not fluctuate dramatically, but changes in value at a steady pace over a period of time.

What about ANF Stock’s Volatility?

According to finviz data, ANF stock’s volatility for the week is measured at 3.84%, while for the month it is maintained at 3.68%.

An Eye on Beta Factor:

One gauge of the relative volatility of a specific stock to the market is its beta. A beta approximates the overall volatility of a security’s returns against the returns of a relevant benchmark (usually the S&P 500 is used). Presently, Beta factor for ANF stock stands at 0.85. A beta of 1 indicates that the security’s price moves with the market. A beta of less than 1 means that the security is theoretically less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 indicates that the security’s price is theoretically more volatile than the market. For example, if a stock’s beta is 1.2, it’s theoretically 20% more volatile than the market. Conversely, if an ETF’s beta is 0.65, it is theoretically 35% less volatile than the market. Therefore, the fund’s excess return is predictable to underperform the benchmark by 35% in up markets and outperform by 35% during down markets.

What Do Analysts’ Recommend?

Analysts mean recommendation for the stock is 2.90, (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell).

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Eric Clapton

Eric Clapton

I am Eric Clapton and has over 14 years experience in the financial services industry giving me a vast understanding of how news affects the financial markets. I am an active day trader spending the majority of my time analyzing earnings reports and watching commodities and derivatives. I have Masters Degree in Economics from Westminster University with previous roles counting Investment Banking.